Protocol for the police gender violence risk assessment (VPR4.0): Review of its performance

Abstract Introduction The assessment and management of risk of intimate partner violence against women is a priority in police, legal and forensic contexts. This work analyzes the performance of the last update of the tool included in the VioGen System (VPR 4.0 ). Material and method A total of 7147 new intimate partner violence against women complaints were analysed, with a follow-up of 320 days. Recidivism between levels of risk was compared, estimating prediction parameters and the survival curve. Results The police recidivism was 14.3% (56.5% of it in the first 3 months) and the VPR 4.0 anticipated significantly recidivism, serious violence and multi-recidivism (sensitivity 79%; specificity 35%; AUC 0.62; PPV 17%; NPV 91%). The greater the risk, the less was the time until recidivism. Conclusions The VPR 4.0 is useful to predict and manage risk, being more accurate in the detection of recidivists (sensitivity), but with more success in cases labelled as low risk (NPV).