The prognostic value of common predictive variables in rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: A study was undertaken to identify common clinical variables, easy to obtain in an out-patient office, that complement the prognostic estimation on survival offered by the staging classification in patients operated on for rectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 236 patients were included. Twenty-one variables related to symptoms, examinations, type of operation, tumor stage, pathology and follow-up were evaluated, all of them were collected prospectively. The relative predictive value was analyzed by means of the Cox' proportional hazards progression model. RESULTS: Age, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), alcaline fosfatase (FA), deshidrogenase lactate (LDH), elective surgery, showed independent predictive value. The risk of death raised by 1.026 (CI 95%: 1.005-1.047) for each year of age at the moment of surgery, serum CEA over 5 ng/ml raises the risk by 2.32 (IC 95%: 1.385-3.893), LDH over 190 mU/ml by raises the risk by 1.64 (IC 95%: 1.026-2.639), FA over 250 U/ml raises the risk by 2.16 (IC 95%: 1.027-4.578), elective surgery reduces the risk by 0.32 (IC 95%: 0.106-0.965). CONCLUSIONS: Age, CEA, LDH, FA and elective surgery, complement the prediction on survival offered by the tumor stage in patients operated on for rectal cancer.