基于MIKE11的汉江上游洪水演进规律研究 Study on Flood Propagation in the Upstream of Hanjiang River Using MIKE11 Model

为克服传统的河道洪水演进模型中存在的人为误差和模拟精度低的问题，引入MIKE11对河道洪水过程进行数值模拟，分析区间洪水传播时间和流量演进规律。以汉江上游河段为例，分别建立MIKE11HD和马斯京根的洪水演进模型。结果对比表明：MIKE11不仅可应用于汉江流域的洪水模拟，且模拟结果达到了甲级预报精度，计算结果验证了MIKE11模型的可靠性、准确性。将两种模型结果和实测数据进行对比，绘制了安康电站–蜀河电站的流量与传播时间的函数关系，揭示了洪水演进规律。研究成果为实现下游河道防洪、旬阳水库建设、梯级水库调度运行的安全提供科学依据。 In order to overcome the shortcomings of artificial error and low precision in the traditional flood routing models, the MIKE11 was used to simulate the flood process of watercourse and analyze the flood propagation time and discharge evolution rule. Taking the upstream of Hanjiang River as an example, the MIKE11 HD flood evolution model and Muskingum method were established, respectively. The results show that the MIKE11 HD not only can be applied to flood simulation in the upstream of Hanjiang River, but also reaches the first-order accuracy. The calculated results confirm the reliability and accuracy of the MIKE11 HD model. By comparing the results of the two models with the measured data, the function relationship between the flow and the propagation time of Ankang-Shuhe hydropower stations are plotted, and the law of flood evolution is revealed. These results provide scientific basis for the safety of downstream flood control, construction of Xunyang reservoir, and operation of cascade reservoirs.