Discriminating underground nuclear explosions leading to late-time radionuclide gas seeps

Utilizing historical data from the U.S. nuclear test program and freely available barometric pressure data, we performed an analytical barometric-pumping efficiency analysis to determine factors resulting in late-time radionuclide gas seeps from underground nuclear explosions. We considered sixteen underground nuclear explosions with similar geology and test setup, of which five resulted in the measurement of late-time radionuclide gas concentrations at the ground surface. The factors we considered include barometric frequency and amplitude, depth of burial, air-filled porosity, intact-rock permeability, fracture aperture, and fracture spacing. The analysis indicates that the best discriminators of late-time radionuclide gas seeps for these explosions are barometric frequency and amplitude and air-filled porosity. While geologic information on fracture aperture and spacing is not available for these explosions, the sensitivity of barometric-pumping efficiency to fracture aperture indicates that fracture a...