Probing recent environmental changes and resident perceptions in Upper Himalaya, Nepal

Abstract We studied time series of MODIS satellite imagery (2000–2018) to characterize trends in vegetation as well as permanent snow/ice cover in the Upper Mustang Region (UMR) of Nepal and evaluated the relationships between rainfall and MODIS-derived vegetation cover. To examine local perceptions of change we interviewed residents from two villages; Yara and Samzong located in the study region. The spatial analysis showed decreasing trends in rangeland vegetation in UMR over the past 19 years. We found low correlations between rainfall and vegetation, which suggests the rangeland vegetation is more influenced by factors other than rainfall such as snowfall in winter, water accumulated from permanent snow/ice cover and overgrazing. Our study showed decreasing permanent snow/ice cover in the region. Air temperature was found to be increasing whereas rainfall had a declining trend over the last 30 years. A comparison of the local people's perceptions with the results from the biophysical analysis showed there was a good agreement of weather, vegetation and snow cover trends; however, it was found that locals might not recognize their own influence on changes in particular on vegetation cover by attributing all changes to climatic variations. Incorporating local perceptions can contribute to our understanding of land cover and climate change effects on rural livelihoods and land management.