Probabilistic ecological risk assessment of selected PAH`s in sediments near a petroleum refinery

Sediment samples were collected and analyzed for a number of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) along a gradient from a petroleum refinery`s wastewater diffuser. These data were used to calculate the potential risk to aquatic organisms using probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo sampling procedures. Sediment chemistry data were used in conjunction with estimates of Biota-Sediment Accumulation Factors and Non-Polar Narcosis Theory to predict potential risk to bivalves. Bivalves were the receptors of choice because of their lack of a well-developed enzymatic system for metabolizing PAHs. Thus, they represent a species of higher inherent risk of adverse impact. PAHs considered in this paper span a broad range of octanol-water partition coefficients. Results indicate negligible risk of narcotic effects from PAHs existing near the refinery wastewater discharge.