Prognostic Factors for Malignant Transformation in Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance and Smoldering Multiple Myeloma

PURPOSE: To evaluate the natural history of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), identify early predictors of evolution, and assess whether associated conditions correlate with disease progression. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1,231 consecutive patients with either MGUS (n = 1,104) or SMM (n = 127) diagnosed from July 1975 to March 1998 were included in the study. Cumulative survival probability and cumulative probability of transformation into lymphoproliferative disease were calculated by means of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to identify possible predictors of malignant evolution. RESULTS: Cumulative transformation probability at 10 and 15 years was 14% and 30%, respectively. At a median follow-up of 65 months (range, 12 to 239 months), 64 MGUS cases (5.8%) evolved to multiple myeloma (MM) (n = 43), extramedullary plasmacytoma (n = 1), primary amyloidosis (n = 1), Waldenstrom’s macroglobulinem...