Validation and comparison of two stroke prognostic models for in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality:

IntroductionWe aimed to validate and compare two clinical prognostic models for mortality which include the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS); the Age and NIHSS Score (ANS) and case mix model (CMM) of the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program (SSNAP). The NIHSS on admission was also tested as a prognostic score.Patients and methodsProspectively collected data from the SSNAP register for a cohort of patients (ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke) admitted over 1 year to Gloucestershire Royal Hospital, England were accessed. The ANS and CMM were calculated and tested for in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality using calibration plots with Hosmer–Lemeshow tests, receiver operating characteristics curves and other measures of prognostic accuracy.ResultsOf 848 patients, 110 (12.9%) died in hospital, 112 (13.2%) at 30 days and 164 (19.2%) at 90 days. Calibration for all three scores was good, although Hosmer–Lemeshow test p values were <0.05 with the NIHSS alone for in hospital and 30-day deaths...