锡林郭勒盟牧区牧业人口承载量研究—以两个嘎查为例 The Study of Carrying Capacity for Stockbreeding Population in Pastoral Areas in Xilingol League—Taking Two Gacha (Villages) as Examples

近年来，内蒙古牧区受牧业人口增多的影响，人均草场面积不断减小。加之“草畜双承包”以及“以草定畜、草畜平衡”政策的实施，牧户所饲养的牲畜头数受各家各户草场面积控制，使部分草场面积小的牧户因不能饲养较多牲畜而陷入贫困，严重影响了牧区全面建成小康社会的进程。本文以“人地关系”理论为基础，依照“以草定畜，以畜定人”的思路，根据小康标准的人均收入、饲养每只羊单位家畜的纯收入、饲养每只羊单位需要的草地面积即载畜能力，推算出以小康生活为标准的人均所需草地面积，继而推算出小康生活水平基准的牧区可容纳最大牧业人口数量，即牧区牧业人口承载量。测算结果显示，锡林郭勒盟南部牧区B嘎查要想使牧业人口达到小康水平，只能承载70人，即B嘎查牧业人口承载量为70人。目前，B嘎查牧业人口为398；超载率469%，人口超载严重。B嘎查通过采取整合草场、合作经营、转移剩余牧业人口等措施，有望使牧民生活达到小康生活水平。北部A嘎查牧业人口承载量为255人，超载率29.4%，与实际人口330相差不多，也就是说北部草场基本可满足小康标准需求。发展家庭牧场、合作经营草场资源等方式均可使A嘎查的草场得到可持续利用。希望本研究为内蒙古牧区“精准扶贫”、“因户施策”、“全面建成小康社会”提供科学依据。 The pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia have been influenced by the increasing population these years, causing a decrease in grassland area of per capita. Due to the policies, Grassland Area-Livestock Double Contract and Balancing Livestock with Grassland, the number of livestock is limited by the fixed grassland area, which makes some herdsmen poverty and affects the process of building a well-off society in pastoral areas. Based on the theory of “Man-Land Relationship”, the policy of “Assessment of livestock balance” and “Match the livestock available with the herdsmen demand”, the per captia income of a well-off standard, net income of breeding per sheep and the bearing capacity of the livestock—the grassland area needed by breeding per sheep, this paper has first calculated the grassland area needed to per person according to the standard of well-off life, sequentially the largest population accommodated in pastoral areas based on a well-off social level standard, which can be the interpretation of the herdsmen population carrying capacity in pastoral area. Those calculated above are. The calculation results show that: if herdmen in B Gacha of pastoral areas of southern Xilingol league want to achieve a well-off level, there can only be 70 people (namely population carrying capacity of herdsmen in B Gacha is 70 people). At present, the herdsmen population of B gacha is 398, its overload rate is 469%, which means population overload is serious. Through integrating grassland, co-operating, and transferring surplus herdsmen population and taking other measures, it is expected to make herdsmen achieve a well-off living standard. A gacha is located in northern Xilingol lengue, its herdsmen population carrying capacity is 255 people and overloaded rate is 29.4%, and it is almost the same with its actual population of 330, which means the northern grassland almost meet the needs of well-off standards. Developing household ranch and using co-operative management of pasture resources etc. can make grassland in A gacha sustainable. It is hoped that this study will provide scientific basis for “precision poverty alleviation”, “according to each household implementation policy” and “comprehensively build a well-off society” in Inner Mongolia pastoral area.