Hey you never know: Selling state lotteries in America

Several US states are exploring selling or leasing lotteries to private operators to plug budget gaps and fund new priorities. Given the long-term implications, governors, budget officials and legislators need a framework for analyzing lottery-sales' decisions. This paper presents such a framework and illustrates it by estimating likely privatization-proceeds and post-sale cash-flows for six states. Our findings are decidedly mixed. We found pricing expectations reasonable for three states and high for three others. However, even at expected pricing levels, sales or leases make, at best, short- to medium-term financial sense. That does not mean states cannot make use of financial markets and private-public partnerships. We offer structural and contracting options that provide a middle ground for policy makers as they consider increasing lottery proceeds or accelerating collections.