Collision Probability with Gaussian Mixture Orbit Uncertainty

In view of the high value of space assets and a growing space debris population increasingly caused by random collisions in a congested space environment, collision analysis is of great significance. Collisions between space objects (spacecraft and space debris) can at best be determined in a probabilistic manner because of the lack of perfect knowledge about the parameters and motions of the space objects. Collision analysis based on the nominal orbital parameters without taking into account the uncertainty in those parameters or in the orbit motions is inaccurate. The probability of collision between two space objects provides a quantitative measure of the likelihood that the space objects will collide with each other. Collision probability is closely related to close approaches, 3 collision detection, and conflict probability and has been derived for low Earth orbits (including the International Space Station), Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. Email: demarsk@mst.edu. Senior Member AIAA. Assistant Professor, Department of Aerospace Engineering. Email: cheng@ae.msstate.edu. Associate Fellow AIAA. Senior Research Engineer. Associate Fellow AIAA.