Quantification of uncertain outcomes from site characterization: Insights from the ESF-AS

As part of the Exploratory Studies Facility Alternatives Study (ESF-AS) the uncertain outcomes from site characterization were quantified using a probabilistic tree known as ``Nature`s Tree.`` Nature`s Tree distinguished the true characteristics of the Yucca Mountain site from the perceived characteristics deduced from testing. Bayesian probabilistic calculations converted probabilities in Nature`s Tree to the probabilistic estimates required for the comparative analysis of Exploratory Studies Facility-repository options. Experts on characterization testing explicitly addressed several site characterization issues that are considered implicitly in many site characterization programs.