Dynamics and forecasts of R&D funding

Abstract The relationships between U.S. R&D funding and other macroparameters are analyzed on an overall national basis and within the four major sectors of the economy. The study concentrates on the dynamics of the two largest funding sources, government and industry, which are examined at decreasing levels of aggregation. Various numerical relationships are demonstrated and explanations of observed dynamical interactions are presented. The effects of the introduction of new areas of R&D interest are investigated. Funding patterns are shown to reflect an inherent stability of R&D operations, as illustrated by lack of good, short-term correlations between R&D funding and cyclical variants such as profits in industry or science and engineering graduate enrollments in institutions of higher education. The analyses and evolved numerical relationships are utilized to develop sectoral and national R&D expenditure projections for the year 1980.