Enhancing the sustainability of Mediterranean olive groves through adaptation measures to climate change using modelling and response surfaces

Abstract Some adaptation measures in response to the severe impacts of climate change on Mediterranean olive orchards were evaluated under a wide range of weather conditions. For this task, a decision support system for improving resources management by the integration of the AdaptaOlive simulation model, perturbed climate and impact and adaptation response surfaces for the model output analysis was developed. Thus, the introduction of irrigation (considering different irrigation strategies such as full demand, regulated deficit irrigation or irrigation support), the implementation of cultivars with lower chilling requirements, the modification of orchard density and an increase in irrigation efficiency were evaluated under current and future weather conditions. Optimal sustainable and environmentally friendly adaptation measures varied depending on the local weather conditions. Thus, the introduction of irrigation provided excellent results under dry and cool winter weather conditions. Cultivars with low chilling requirements reduced flowering failure associated with the lack of chill accumulation and registered optimal performance under mild winter conditions. This adaptation measure played a critical role under these weather conditions, even more so than measures focused on preventing water stress as irrigation. Finally, increasing orchard density was appropriate in non-water-limited areas with cool winter conditions. This study confirms the great importance of integrating crop modelling and tools for model output analysis into the assessment of site-specific adaptation measures to climate change, in order to ensure the sustainability of Mediterranean agricultural systems under semi-arid conditions.