Private coverage mandates, business cycles, and provider treatment intensity.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is the source of multiple large-scale health insurance expansions affecting various segments of the US population. Although much has been done to quantify the first-order effects of these policies, less empirical investigation has been devoted to the effects on the supply-side of health care. We focus on a well-known ACA initiative (the young adult dependent coverage mandate) to offer novel evidence on two fronts: the policy's heterogeneous effect across different labor markets and the potential for the policy-induced shift in payer mix to influence provider treatment decisions. First, we show that the federal mandate's direct effect on young adult private insurance take-up is strongly mitigated by the Great Recession. Second, we demonstrate that providers do not treat young adults more aggressively when more of them hold private coverage. Policymakers should keep these broader considerations and more diffuse risk protection implications in mind when contemplating changes to the law.