Risk map for the range expansion of Thrips palmi in Korea under climate change: Combining species distribution models with land-use change

Abstract Climate change and land-use change are the most powerful drivers for the invasion of alien species. To understand the integrated effects of these two drivers on pest invasion risk in the future, this study assessed how they impact the invasion risk of Thrips palmi Karny, which is the most serious invasive species in the Korean peninsula. The potential distribution of T. palmi was projected with a MaxEnt model for current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) based on occurrence records. The potential distribution extends to the north over time, except the eastern high mountainous area, for both RCPs in 2075. The MaxEnt outputs were filtered with agricultural area using data from three land-use change scenarios derived from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), because T. palmi populations can only be sustained in agricultural areas. The potential risk of T. palmi , based on the potential distribution probability in the future agricultural area, increased over time under all RCPs-SSPs combinations. The total area of T. palmi occurrence increased under RCPs-SSP1 and -SSP2 but decreased under RCPs-SSP3, due to agricultural areas being converted to urban areas. In conclusion, based on future climate change scenarios, T. palmi could be distributed throughout the Korean peninsula in the future. The invasion risk in agricultural areas will increase substantially; thus, intensive control measures for T. palmi are required in the future. Our research suggests that using both climate change and land-use change in pest risk mapping study can provide informative data for management strategy.