Copeptin – a biomarker of short-term mortality risk (7 days) in patients with end-stage liver disease

: Background For many patients with end-stage liver disease, liver transplantation represents the only curative therapy. Transplant recipients are scored and ranked using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD/MELD-Na). Circulatory impairment is known to deteriorate outcomes; however, it is not incorporated into the current allocation system's score. The aim of our study is to analyze the predictive value of copeptin as a biomarker of circulatory impairment and increased short-term mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study of 615 patients with end-stage liver disease. Patients were recruited using assessments performed during the evaluation process for liver transplantation. Copeptin values were analyzed in comparison to MELD-Na, interleukin 6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP). Results Elevated levels of copeptin, IL-6 and CRP, as well as high MELD-Na scores, were significantly correlated with mortality. In a comparison of copeptin-tertiles, patients in group T3 (16.3 pmol/L or more) showed a significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 11.2, p < 0.001). After adjusting for MELD-Na, copeptin remains an independent predictor of mortality. It shows its greatest prognostic strength in short-term mortality, where it performs comparable to MELD-Na (AUROC for 7 day-mortality, 0.941/0.939; p = 0.981) and shows an additional predictive value to MELD-Na for short-term mortality (7 days, p: 0.046; 30 days, p: 0.006). Conclusions Copeptin presents a valuable individual biomarker in detecting patients at risk for short-term mortality. Further studies should be performed to confirm our findings.