Scenarios of bioenergy provision: technological developments in a landscape context and their social effects

While it is developing rapidly throughout Germany, bioenergy provision is open to different development opportunities. To understand the cause–effect relationships that drive bioenergy development and explore different development options and their effects on regional development, qualitative scenarios have been drafted using the Gorlitz district as an example. The paper introduces the scenario method, with scenarios that are expressed in storylines. Driving forces and their relationships are thereupon reflected. The results show that the relation of the Common Agricultural Policy and Renewable Energy Act is of particular importance for future development in general. For the specific type of development in particular in rural regions, technologies are equally important, as they allow for both strongly central and highly decentralised developments. Due to an increasing diversity of options, the decision between central and decentral developments is, however, less technologically determined, but rather dependent on stakeholders’ decisions. Such stakeholders not only include stakeholders from the production sector, but also include consumers and affected parties, particularly the inhabitants whose living environment is changing rapidly. Both the landscape and society are subject to change. As a major driving force and an impacted system under change itself, social constellations must be taken into account to ensure a sustainable development under the signs of renewable energy expansion. Management tools should consider the interlinkage between landscape, energy, and social systems.