Risk factors predicting chronic rejection of renal allografts

Chronic rejection is clinically defined as a gradual but progressive impairment of renal allograft function in the absence of other specific causes. The risk factors predisposing to chronic rejection are incompletely known. In this prospective single-center project, logistic regression analysis was used to study the long-term outcome of 94 consecutive first renal allografts in relation to 10 potential risk factors. Whether serum lipid levels, histopathological changes or the mode of immunosuppressive therapy had a predictive value for chronic rejection was of special interest. The risk factors for renal allograft outcome were determined 2 years after the transplantation, when graft function was still normal, and the results were evaluated 2 years later