Fault rate analysis, modelling and estimation : Network infrastructure planning and performance

This paper describes the development and application of a generic fault generation model applicable to copper and other network technologies. This model is intended to act as a framework for understanding, analysing and predicting the impact of existing and new initiatives on the fault generation process. The paper includes an overview of the approach and the tools, such as regression analysis, which are used when applying the model and shows the results from two case studies which look at fault generation at a zonal level, and fault generation during a period of network improvement. These studies suggest that the main fault generation mechanisms are manual intervention and unusual weather conditions, and show that improvement programmes are likely to introduce a temporary increase in fault rates during the improvement period before the benefits are felt. For this reason, it is suggested that the introduction of any new processes (i.e. working practices), tools (i.e. fault location), or technologies should therefore minimise the impact of intervention and be able to withstand adverse environmental conditions, and that any such programmes should be designed to involve minimal manual intervention.