Forecasting Recreation Demand: An Application of the Travel Cost Model

This paper presents a methodology for deriving forecasts of recreation (resort, etc.) demand based upon the standard travel cost model. To illustrate the technique, a sample TCM is derived to estimate visitation to the Virginia Beach, Virginia shoreline for the Summer, 1981 period. Using the estimated parameters from the model, visitation to Virginia Beach in 1990 is forecasted using data on income and population projections from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.