PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF VEHICLE SAFETY STANDARDS: THE CASE OF AUTOMATIC OCCUPANT RESTRAINTS FOR PASSENGER CARS

A major component of government policy to improve road safety in Canada is the regulation of new motor vehicle performance under the federal Motor Vehicle Safety Act. This paper will describe the process of evaluation necessary to identify the effectiveness of proposed regulations, and will illustrate the state of the art in Canada by examining the case of a proposed regulation to require automatic restraint devices for occupants of passenger automobiles. This particular regulation has been proposed by the U.S. government for some years, and is interesting for the possible magnitude of its impact and for the problems its evaluation has posed. Only the requirements of "effectiveness evaluation" (determining the effectiveness in improving safety) will be considered, ignoring the additional requirements of economic evaluation.