Trend analysis and uncertainties of mean surface air temperature, precipitation and extreme indices in CMIP3 GCMs in Distrito Federal, Brazil

A key challenge for climate projection science is to serve the growing needs of impact assessments in an environment with substantial differences in the projections of climate models and an increasing number of relevant climate model results. In order to assist the assessment of water resources impacts under future climate change, this work provides a synthesis of the simulations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the region of Distrito Federal, Brazil. The work analyzes projections of mean surface air temperature and precipitation of 22 GCMs, as well as seven extreme indices of 10 GCMs. Trends of the multi-model ensemble median, as well as their significance, were calculated. The consistency in the sign of change was assessed through the percentage of agreement of simulations with the median. Finally, the probability density function of the multi-model ensemble provides valuable information about the uncertainties of projections. Investigations were performed for annual and seasonal temporal scales for the period 2011–2050. The main results here identified are: (a) a consensus of the multi-model ensemble and median to increasing temperature; (b) a slightly, but less consistent, decrease of precipitation in the dry season; and (c) increase of heat waves and droughts events, although changes in precipitation extremes are much less coherent than for temperature. The approach used gives a comprehensive assessment of the possible future climate until the middle of the twenty-first century, as well as the uncertainties involved in the multi-model ensemble projections.