How Does China’s Low Carbon Pilot Program Perform? Evidence from the First Batch of Low-Carbon Pilot Provinces

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing increasing pressure in emission mitigation, and it has issued three batches of low carbon pilot programs. This research aims at examining and comparing the carbon emission performance of the first batch of pilot provinces. By adopting LMDI model the effects of economic output, energy intensity, energy structure and population on carbon emission before and after becoming a pilot have been investigated. Results show that: (1) the growth rate of carbon emission in all the five provinces decrease significantly during 2010–2015 in comparing to the level of 2005–2010. (2) Economic output plays the most significant role in contributing carbon emission increase in all the five provinces during 2005–2010 and 2010–2015. (3) After becoming low carbon pilots, the cumulative effect of EO on carbon emission increase has decreased and the cumulative effect of EI on carbon emission reduction has increased dramatically, among which Yunnan province performs the best. The findings not only allow the decision-makers understand the carbon emission performance of these five provinces, but also provide local governments with scientific basis in making effective and targeted measures for carbon emission reduction.