Peru: the utilization of demographic knowledge in policy formulation and planning.

Perus population multiplied from 6.2 million in 1940 to 17.2 million in 1981 and is expected to reach almost 28 million inhabitants by 2000. The annual growth rate slowed down from 2.9% in the 1960s to 2.6 in the 1970s. While mortality was declining rapidly during the 1940s and the 1950s the total fertility rate (TFR) remained high at around 6.9 children/woman. In 1981 the TFR was estimated at 5.2 and two-thirds of the inhabitants were urban. Demographic projections predict a population of 22.3 million by 1990 with a TFR of 4.49 and 27.9 million by 2000 with a TFR of 3.1. Rural to urban migration became massive and the capital grew from 645000 resident to over 1.8 million in the second half of the 20th century. In 1964 the first governmental institution on population studies was founded. The 1972 the third national census counted a population over 13.5 million an increase of over 3.5 million since 1961. The first National Development plan of 1975-78 included explicit population goals. After 1978 development plans included more population programs. Also training activities on population problems were offered to civil servants with the participation of the National Population Council and the Associacion Multidisciplinaria de Investigacion y Docencia en Poblacion. The National Law on Population was passed in 1985 dealing with the family: education in population social communication health and population and national development and population distribution. Specific contraceptive methods were not addressed but sterilization and abortion were prohibited. A 1980 study of abortion-related complications among patients of health facilities estimated an incidence of 137 abortions/1000 live births. Increased motivation for a smaller family and the slow pace of efficient family planning services could raise the incidence of abortion an issue demanding careful consideration which was avoided in the law owing to the opposition of the conservative parliamentary commission.