Vulnerability of coral reefs in the tropical Pacificto climate change

In this chapter, we assess the vulnerability of the coral reefs that underpin coastal fisheries and aquaculture in the tropical Pacific, by examining the possible effects of climate change on coral communities and other reef-building organisms. Our analysis draws on the projected changes to the surface climate and ocean of the tropical Pacific, described in Chapters 2 and 3, to quantify how coral reefs are likely to be exposed to these effects. The results of that analysis were used in the framework outlined in Chapter 1 to assess the vulnerability of coral reefs in the region under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B1 and A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Given the demonstrated potential for local factors to amplify the effects of global climate change on coral reefs, factors operating at a local level are an important aspect of this analysis.