Potential contribution of climate conditions on COVID-19 pandemic transmission over West and North African countries

The COVID-19 disease, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a very contagious disease that has killed many people around the world. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) data, the spread of the disease appears to be slower in Africa. Although a number of studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 transmission, the effects of climate conditions on COVID-19 remain largely unexplored and without consensus following the main research finding over Africa (often based on a single country or city). Here, using available epidemiological data over 275 days (i.e., from March 1 to November 30, 2020) taken from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of the European Union database and daily data of surface air temperature and humidity from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this paper investigates the potential contributions of climate conditions on COVID-19 transmission over 16 countries selected from three bioclimatic regions of Africa (i.e., Sahel, Maghreb and Gulf of Guinea). On average, our main findings highlight statistically significant inverse correlations between COVID-19 cases and temperature over the Maghreb and the Gulf of Guinea regions, whereas positive correlations are found in the Sahel, especially over the central part including Niger and Mali. Correlations with specific humidity and water vapor parameters display significant and positive values over the Sahelian and the Gulf of Guinean countries and negative values over the Maghreb countries. In other word, results imply that the COVID-19 pandemic transmission is influenced differently across the three bioclimatic regions: i) cold and dry environmental conditions over the Maghreb; ii) warm and humid conditions over the Sahel iii) cold and humid conditions over the Gulf of Guinea. These findings could be useful for decision-makers who plan public health and control measures in affected African countries and would have substantial implications for directing respiratory disease surveillance activities.