Predicting solar radiation fluxes for solar energy systemapplications
2013
The mean daily global solar radiation flux is influenced by
astronomical, climatological, geographical, geometrical,
meteorological, and physical parameters. This paper deals with the
study of the effects of influencing parameters on the mean daily global
solar radiation flux, and also with the computation of the solar
radiation flux at the surface of the earth in locations without solar
radiation measurements. The reference–real data were borrowed
from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. The analysis of data
showed that the mean daily solar radiation flux on a horizontal surface
is related to parameters such as: mean daily extraterrestrial solar
radiation, average daily ratio of sunshine duration, mean daily
relative humidity, mean daily maximum air temperature, mean daily
maximum dew point temperature, mean daily atmospheric pressure, and
sine of the solar declination angle. Multiple regression and
correlation analysis were applied to predict the mean daily global
solar radiation flux on a horizontal surface. The models were validated
when compared with the reference–measured data of global solar
radiation flux. The results showed that the models estimate the global
solar radiation flux within a narrow relative error band. The values of
mean bias errors and root mean square errors were within acceptable
margins. The predicted values of global solar radiation flux by this
approach can be used for the design and performance estimation in solar
applications. The model can be used in areas where meteorological
stations do not exist and information on solar radiation flux cannot be
obtained experimentally.
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