Variabilidad Espacial en los determinantes de la Fecundidad de Argentina (2001-2010). Un enfoque por Regresiones Geográficamente Ponderadas [Spatial Variability in the determinants of Fertility in Argentina (2001-2010). A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach]

The relationship between fertility and its determinants may be conditioned by social behaviors at the local level. Using geographic information as an approximation of social interactions, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of socioeconomic conditions on departmental fertility in Argentina. Using Census data for 2001 and 2010, the fertility among women between 25 and 29 years of age is dependent on socioeconomic variables such as educational level, poverty situation and degree of urbanization, among others. The most significant contribution is the use of geographically weighted regressions (GWR), a technique that makes it possible to detect the presence of a non-stationary spatial process. This means that the linear relationship investigated is not homogeneous throughout the territory, but that the intensity of the effect of the explanatory factors varies locally. The evidence found highlights the need to use econometric techniques that incorporate geographical heterogeneity. Additionally, our results make it possible to distinguish the stage of the demographic transition achieved in different regions of Argentina, highlighting the restrictions posed by material well-being and educational level; and also serve as an input to public policies that seek to include population growth within their objectives.