Abstract T MP78: Real Time Prediction of Early Neurologic Deterioration using A Blood Pressure Volatility Model in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Objectives: We aimed to develop a blood pressure (BP) embedded real time prediction model for early neurologic deterioration (END) in patients with acute ischemic stroke Methods: We identified consecutive ischemic stroke patients hospitalized within 48 hours of symptom onset from a prospective stroke registry database. BP data during hospitalization were obtained from the electric medical records. Probability of END at each time point of BP measurement was estimated using logistic model with covariates derived from two models for clinical information and BP parameters. A model for clinical information was fitted by using logistic model with patients’ clinical characteristics to predict END. A model for BP was fitted by random-effects models with temporal correlations at each time point of BP measurement with irregular intervals for mean as well as dispersion. Prediction performance was evaluated by calculating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the cut-off value of high probability of END ...