Predicting imminent disease progression in advanced colorectal cancer by a machine-learning algorithm.

645Background: In advanced cancers, predicting disease progression just before its clinical manifestation enables an earlier switch to the next treatment line, preventing deterioration in the patient's state and potentially improving survival. Yet, given the ambiguity of current tumor markers in alerting to progression, physicians are unable to forecast this key event. We developed a diagnostic algorithm for announcing an approaching disease progression in late-stage colorectal cancer (CRC) patients by processing continuous carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) input. Methods: Longitudinally measured CEA data of advanced CRC patients treated by standard 1st line chemotherapies, collected from 2 clinical trials (projectdatasphere.org), served for algorithm development by machine-learning and training assisted by receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis and correlation tests. Performance was validated by cross-validation techniques. Results: CEA and response evaluations of 489 CRC patients (median follow-u...