Probabilistic tephra hazard maps for the Neapolitan area: Quantitative volcanological study of Campi Flegrei eruptions

[1] Tephra fall is a relevant hazard of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), due to the high vulnerability of Naples metropolitan area to such an event. Here, tephra derive from magmatic as well as phreatomagmatic activity. On the basis of both new and literature data on known, past eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), grain size parameters, velocity at the vent, column heights and erupted mass), and factors controlling tephra dispersion (wind velocity and direction), 2D numerical simulations of fallout dispersion and deposition have been performed for a large number of case events. A bayesian inversion has been applied to retrieve the best values of critical parameters (e.g., vertical mass distribution, diffusion coefficients, velocity at the vent), not directly inferable by volcanological study. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a fully probabilistic analysis, on a very large catalogue preserving the statistical proprieties of past eruptive history. Using simulation results, hazard maps have been computed for different scenarios: upper limit scenario (worst-expected scenario), eruption-range scenario, and whole-eruption scenario. Results indicate that although high hazard characterizes the Campi Flegrei caldera, the territory to the east of the caldera center, including the whole district of Naples, is exposed to high hazard values due to the dominant westerly winds. Consistently with the stratigraphic evidence of nature of past eruptions, our numerical simulations reveal that even in the case of a subplinian eruption (VEI = 3), Naples is exposed to tephra fall thicknesses of some decimeters, thereby exceeding the critical limit for roof collapse. Because of the total number of people living in Campi Flegrei and the city of Naples (ca. two million of inhabitants), the tephra fallout risk related to a plinian eruption of Campi Flegrei largely matches or exceeds the risk related to a similar eruption at Vesuvius.