The Vulnerability of Tunisian Agriculture to Climate Change

In the context of assessing the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Tunisia, the effect of climate change on semiarid agriculture, mainly rain-fed crops, has been evaluated using crop models and climatic studies. In Tunisia, rain-fed agriculture represents the main livelihood for the large rural population, so any additional pressure on water demand will affect the sector and, as a consequence, the socioeconomic development and stability of the country. The variability in cereal production can be directly explained by the fluctuation of rainfall and the rise in temperature combined with a decrease in precipitation; this may have serious consequences on wheat production, the most important foodstuff of the country. A regional climate study, based on the temporal trends of the reference evapotranspiration in the center region of Tunisia using the Penman–Montheith methodology, highlighted that climatic series data must be considered carefully in order to not induce an error. The study showed that maximum and minimum temperatures do not trend in a similar way. A significant temperature trend was noted during spring and summer periods (hot season), especially for maximum temperature. The sensitivity analysis test showed that the most influential parameters on ETo are, respectively, the net shortwave radiation followed by the actual vapor pressure, the longwave radiation and the maximum temperature. The detected trend of the important climatic parameters can be used for developing future scenarios that may prove more realistic for the region.