Potential epidemiological and economical impact of two rotavirus vaccines in Colombia.

Abstract A complete economic study was carried out to assess the economical impact of two rotavirus vaccine in Colombia. A Markov decision model was built to assess the health outcomes from birth to 24 months of age for three hypothetical cohorts: one unvaccinated, one vaccinated with 2 doses of Rotarix™ and the third, with 3 doses of Rotateq™. Without vaccination, the annual number of medical visits by diarrhea in children under 2 years would be 1,293,159 cases, with 105,378 medical visits and 470 deaths (IC95% 295–560) related to rotavirus. Without vaccination, rotavirus disease would cost around USD$8 millions including direct and indirect costs. Assuming a cost per dose of USD$7.5, average cost-effectiveness ratio would be USD$663/DALY with Rotarix and USD$1391 with Rotateq. When price per dose falls below USD$7 both vaccines yield a similar average cost-effectiveness ratio (USD$1063/DALY). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of Rotateq versus Rotarix was USD$7787/DALY. Cost-effectiveness ratio was influenced mainly by vaccine cost and cost per case hospitalized. Other programmatic aspects such as number of doses to be applied, likelihood of completing vaccination schedule with shorter versus longer schedules, and storage space within the chain cold should be considered to make decisions on which vaccine should be introduced. In conclusion, vaccinating against rotavirus in Colombia with either vaccine would be very cost effective. If cost per vaccinated children falls below USD$3 per dose vaccination would be cost saving.