Prognostic value of intermediate age-related macular degeneration phenotypes for geographic atrophy progression

Background To characterise early stages of geographic atrophy (GA) development in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and to determine the prognostic value of structural precursor lesions in eyes with intermediate (i) AMD on the subsequent GA progression. Methods Structural precursor lesions for atrophic areas (lesion size at least 0.5 mm² in fundus autofluorescence images) were retrospectively identified based on multimodal imaging and evaluated for association with the subsequent GA enlargement rates (square-root transformed, sqrt). A linear mixed-effects model was used to account for the hierarchical nature of the data with a Tukey post hoc test to assess the impact of the local precursor on the subsequent GA progression rate. Results A total of 39 eyes with GA of 34 patients with a mean age of 74.4±6.7 (±SD) years were included in this study. Five precursor lesions (phenotypes 1–5) preceding GA development were identified: large, sub-retinal pigment epithelial drusen (n=19), reticular pseudodrusen (RPD, n=10), refractile deposits (n=4), pigment epithelial detachment (n=4) and vitelliform lesions (n=2). Precursor lesions exhibited a significant association with the subsequent (sqrt) GA progression rates (p=0.0018) with RPD (phenotype 2) being associated with the fastest GA enlargement (2.29±0.52 (±SE) mm/year. Conclusions The results indicate the prognostic relevance of iAMD phenotyping for subsequent GA progression highlighting the role of structural AMD features across different AMD stages.