Warming of lowland Polish lakes under future climate change scenarios and consequences for ice cover and mixing dynamics

Abstract Study region The study region comprises 25 lowland Polish lakes in the northern part of the country. The studied lakes provide domestic, industrial and agricultural water supply, and are major attractions for tourism, thus playing a significant role in the Polish economy. Study focus The expected impact of future climate change on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) was predicted using the air2water model, which relies solely on daily air temperature (AT) as model input. LSWT and AT observations for the period 1987–2016 were used for model calibration and validation. Then, historical (1987–2005) and future (2006–2100) AT time series from nine EURO-CORDEX climate models were used to project future LSWT under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. New hydrological insights for the region The results showed that air2water can well reproduce daily LWST with root mean square errors lower than 1 °C on average. The warming trends of both AT and LSWT are expected to be lower than those observed in the past decades (after the 1980s), and ice cover and weak stratification conditions are expected to partially buffer the LSWT response to the high AT warming expected in future winters. However, the overall enduring warming will substantially alter future thermal dynamics, leading to a shortening of ice cover and inverse stratification periods, possibly leading to serious consequences for lake water quality and ecosystem health.