Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios

Abstract The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance.