The Impact of Time and Economic Circumstances on Popular Evaluations of Russia's President

Building on the economic voting literature, the article hypothesizes that support for democratic reformers in a post-Soviet society can be expected to vary with economic conditions and also with where the country is in the transition process. Using a series of nine repeated surveys covering the time span from 1991 to 1999 in the Russian Federation, it tests both a reward-punishment hypothesis and a "price of reform" hypothesis. Among the best predictors of positive evaluations of President Yeltsin are time in the transition process (early in the process rather than late) and positive outlooks about the economic prospects for one's own family. Yet, political evaluation measures are found to have equal importance in understanding the dynamics of democratic support. In evaluating support for the opposition, the article finds that support for the Communist Party is directly related to negative economic evaluations, to experience with severe hardship, and to low monthly income.