Assessing the Expected Impact of Climate Change on Nitrate Load in a Small Atlantic Agro-Forested Catchment

Climate change is likely to have profound impacts on quality of water resources, by altering the magnitude and timing of nutrient delivery to stream network. However, water quality responses to climate change are difficult to predict, especially for nutrient loads because of combined uncertainties in water quality and quantity projections. In this study, the potential medium (2031-2060) and long-term (2069-2098) impacts of project changes in climate variables (temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration) on nitrate load in an Atlantic agro-forested catchment (NW Spain) were assessed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. Climate change scenarios are based on data projected by regional models from the ENSEMBLES project and two CO2 concentration scenarios. The results showed that nitrate load will increase in the future horizons (2031-2060, 6%; 2069-2098, 7%) in relation to current values (1981-2010), possibly due to the decline in grassland biomass, as well as an increase in the rate of mineralisation linked to the increase in temperature. Consequently, lower rates of fertilisers will be needed in these areas in future horizons, which should be taken into consideration when planning management strategies in order to mitigate the impacts of potential climate change.