Mechanistic modeling of salmonellosis: Update and future directions

ABSTRACTMicrobial risk assessors often make simplifying assumptions that lead to the selection of simple concave functions with low-dose linearity, consistent with no-threshold and single-hit hypotheses, as default dose–response model forms. However, evidence is accumulating as the “microbiome revolution” progresses that challenge these assumptions that influence the estimates of the nature and magnitude of uncertainties associated with microbial risks. Scientific advances in the knowledge of the human “superorganism” (hybrid consortium of human plus microbial communities that cooperatively regulates health and disease) enable the design of definitive studies to estimate the pathogen doses overcome by the innate defenses, including the protective microbiota. The systematic investigation of the events of non-typhoid salmonellosis in humans undertaken nearly 2 decades ago was updated to incorporate recent scientific advances in the understanding of impact of the healthy superorganism that strengthens and ex...