The economic feasibility of green hydrogen and fuel cell electric vehicles for road transport in China

Abstract In September 2020, the Chinese central government announced a new policy to develop hydrogen energy and fuel cell applications. It emphasized fuel cell commercial vehicles rather than passenger vehicles. Such an emphasis is drastically different from the hydrogen and fuel cell strategies of other leading economies. This study aims at providing insights into the justification behind it. It develops quantitative models to conduct economic assessments of the feasibility of hydrogen energy produced from renewable energy and subsequently applied in the road transport sector in China. A well-to-wheel model is developed to estimate the carbon emissions of the hydrogen supply chain as well as that of the fuel cell electric vehicles. In the meantime, a levelised cost of hydrogen model is adopted to analyze the cost of hydrogen as storage for renewable energy. These are followed by a total cost of ownership model applied to assess the cost of owning and driving fuel cell electric vehicle, fueled by the hydrogen produced from renewables, compared to alternative vehicle powertrains, especially those fossil fuel-based. On such a basis, the relation between energy policies and the competitiveness of hydrogen produced from renewable energy and the fuel cell electric vehicle is discussed.