Precursory Signs of Large Forbush Decreases
2021
The study of space-weather effects and more specifically Forbush decreases of the cosmic-ray intensity depends on space and ground measurements. Very often Forbush decreases and geomagnetic storms are accompanied by pre-increases and/or pre-decreases manifested in cosmic-ray behavior, known as precursory signs. These cosmic-ray intensity variations do not coincide with the shock arrival but begin well before (up to 24 hours) the onset of the main event. In this study a group of large Forbush decreases with amplitude ≥ 4% was examined for precursors. According to the helio-longitude of the solar source, the events were separated into three categories: western (
$21^{\circ} \leq $
helio-longitude ≤ 60∘), eastern (
$-60^{\circ} \leq $
helio-longitude $\leq -21^{\circ}$
), and central (
$-20^{\circ} \leq $
helio-longitude $\leq 20^{\circ}$
). The selected events cover 1967 – 2017. The analysis of the Forbush decreases and the plotting of the asymptotic longitudinal cosmic-ray distribution diagrams were based on the “Global Survey Method” and the “Ring of Stations” method, respectively. Data on solar flares, solar-wind speed, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst) were also used. The results show the clear signs of precursors in a significant number of events.
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