연구논문 : HSPF 유역모델을 이용한 낙동강유역 실시간 수문 유출 예측

A watershed model was constructed using Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran to quantitatively predict the stream flows at major tributaries of Nakdong River basin, Korea. The entire basin was divided into 32 segments to effectively account for spatial variations in meteorological data and land segment parameter values of each tributary. The model was calibrated at ten tributaries including main stream of the river for a three year period 2008 to 2010. The deviation values Dv of runoff volumes for operational stream flow forecasting for a six month period 2012.1.2 to 2012.6.29 at the ten tributaries ranged from -38.1 to 23.6%, which is on average 7.8% higher than those of runoff volumes for model calibration -12.5 to 8.2%. The increased prediction errors were mainly from the uncertainties of numerical weather prediction modeling; nevertheless the stream flow forecasting results presented in this study were in a good agreement with the measured data.