Marriage and fertility in the Gulf region: the impact of pro-family pro-natal policies.

This paper compares marriage and fertility patterns and trends among the Arab countries of Bahrain Oman Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Findings are related to socioeconomic changes and the implicit and explicit population policies of the six countries. Data are obtained from the Gulf Child and Health Surveys (GCHS) which are consistent with the methodology and structure of the Demographic and Health Surveys. Bahrain and Kuwait are known for well-developed statistical systems and high quality data. Oman had never had a census before the GCHS was administered. Saudi Arabian censuses were of unknown quality. The low level of female education was a handicap to reliable data. Still there is "a reasonable degree of confidence in some of the fertility measures." Analysis is based on the fertility measures that are based on pregnancy histories. The highest fertility rates were in Oman and Saudi Arabia and the lowest in Bahrain. The differences in fertility are attributed to differences in age at marriage and delayed marriage. Contraceptive use data was not available for all countries. Use in Bahrain was very high began at an early age and followed the birth of the first child. Qatar had lower contraceptive use but 19.7% of current use was sterilization. There was no contraceptive use in Oman. Contraceptive use ranged from 29.6% among women 20-24 years old to 47.2% among women 30-34 years old and there was little use of permanent methods. The effects of policy were mixed. Bahrain has no policy and low fertility. Qatar and UAE are pro-natalist with availability of contraception and these countries had some fertility decline. Saudi Arabia has a pronatalist policy increased education for women and changes in marriage age. The question remains as to why marital fertility is high compared to reported levels of contraceptive use.