Predicting prognosis of rectal cancer patients with total mesorectal excision using molecular markers

AIM: To explore the prognostic variables in rectal cancer patients undergoing curative total mesorectal excision and the effect of postoperative chemotherapy in advanced rectal cancer. METHODS: A total of 259 consecutive rectal cancer patients treated with curative total mesorectal excision between 1999 and 2004 were collected. p53, p21, PCNA, and CD44v6 were examined using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The correlation between clinicopathological or molecular variables and clinical outcomes, including local recurrence, metastasis, disease-free survival and overall survival, was analyzed. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 44 mo. Five-year survival rates and 5-year disease free survival rates were 75.43% and 70.32%, respectively. Multi-analysis revealed TNM staging, preoperative CEA, and CD44v6 level were independent risk factors predicting overall survival or disease free survival. The hazard ratio of peroperative CEA was 2.65 (95% CI 1.4-5) and 3.10 (95% CI 1.37-6.54) for disease free survival and overall survival, respectively. The hazard ratio of CD44v6 was 1.93 (95% CI 1.04-3.61) and 2.21 (95% CI 1.01-4.88) for disease free survival and overall survival, respectively. TNM staging was the only risk factor predicting local recurrence. Postoperative chemotherapy without radiotherapy did not improve patients’ outcome. CONCLUSION: TNM staging, preoperative CEA and CD44v6 were independent prognostic factors for rectal cancer patients with total mesorectal excision. Postoperative chemotherapy may be only used together with radiotherapy for rectal cancer patients.