Mission Success of U.S. Launch Vehicle Flights from a Propulsion Stage-Based Perspective: 1980-2015

This report documents a study of the historical safety and reliability trends of U.S. space launch vehicles from 1980 to 2015. The launch data history is examined to determine whether propulsion technology choices drove launch system risk and is used to understand how different propulsion system failures manifested into different failure scenarios. The historical data is processed by launch vehicle stage, where a stage is limited by definition to a single propulsion technology, either liquid or solid. Results are aggregated in terms of failure trends and manifestations as a functions of different propulsion stages. Failure manifestations are analyzed in order to understand the types and frequencies of accident environments in which an abort system for a crewed vehicle would be required to operate.