Dynamics and projection of carbon deposition function of Russian forests in relation to Climate Change problem

Retrospective calculation of the Russian forests’ carbon balance for the period of 1999-2010 was accomplished using ROBUL system, which is a component of the Russian National GHG Cadaster. The forest carbon projection was developed based on the Canadian model CBM-CFS. Official forest statistics was used as a data source. The results are structured for the regions of Russia. At the beginning of 1990-ies forests accumulated in their biomass up to 70 mln tons of carbon annually. In the middle of 1990-ies carbon stock increased and its average level has reached 250 mln C per year. The key increase factor was decrease in logging because of political and socio-economic changes in Russia. Climate change and extreme weather resulted in more forest fires in the Southern Siberia and the Russian Far East. In the years of the extreme forest fires (1998, 2003, 2010) the carbon stock decreased down to 50-100 mln tonns. However, the influence of forest fires on the carbon stock is less compared to logging. However, due to aging of forests their potential for carbon accumulation will decrease. At the current rate of forest fires and logging by the middle of 2030-ies the carbon stock of Russian forests will decrease for 50%. Intensive logging may also result into decrease of the carbon stock. Improvement of Russian forest management to increase capacity of forests to accumulate carbon requires development and implementation of large scale measures which have to be supported by international / Russian funding and political will. One of the most effective measures could be effective prevention and suppression of forest fires. Conservation measures have to be applied to preserve intact forest landscapes. One of the examples could be efforts accomplished by WWF to preserve intact forest landscapes in the Bikin River watershed (the Russian Far East) from logging for alternative traditional livelihoods.