HF progression among outpatients with HF in a community setting

Abstract Background Incidence and prognostic impact of heart failure (HF) progression has been not well addressed. Methods From 2009 until 2015, consecutive ambulatory HF patients were recruited. HF progression was defined by the presence of at least two of the following criteria: step up of ≥1 New York Heart Association (NYHA) class; decrease LVEF ≥ 10 points; association of diuretics or increase ≥ 50% of furosemide dosage, or HF hospitalization. Results 2528 met study criteria (mean age 76; 42% women). Of these, 48% had ischemic heart disease, 18% patients with LVEF ≤ 35%. During a median follow-up of 2.4 years, overall mortality was 31% (95% CI: 29%–33%), whereas rate of HF progression or death was 57% (95% CI: 55%–59%). The 4-year incidence of HF progression was 39% (95% CI: 37%–41%) whereas the competing mortality rate was 18% (95% CI: 16%–19%). Rates of HF progression and death were higher in HF patients with LVEF ≤ 35% vs >35% (HF progression: 42% vs 38%, p  = 0.012; death as a competing risk: 22% vs 17%, p  = 0.002). HF progression identified HF patients with a worse survival (HR = 3.16, 95% CI: 2.75–3.72). In cause-specific Cox models, age, previous HF hospitalization, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, anemia, sex, LVEF ≤ 35% emerged as prognostic factors of HF progression. Conclusions Among outpatients with HF, at 4 years 39% presented a HF progression, while 18% died before any sign of HF progression. This trend was higher in patients with LVEF ≤ 35%. These findings may have implications for healthcare planning and resource allocation.