Probabilistic Arrival Power Evaluation considering Voltage Stability

Purpose of the electric power system planning and operation is to supply the electric energy to customers continuously and economically. With the mutual exclusive laws of nature between reliability and economic, finding the meeting point is very important but not easy. Commonly the probabilistic reliability indices of the electric power systems are represented with negatively. And the effectiveness of FACTS on the probabilistic reliability could not be reflected with common methods. In this paper, a method to evaluate the probabilistic arrival power at each load point is presented. With this new proposed method, probabilistic reserve margin at load points can be calculated and which can be used with positive reliability index also. Using the P-V analysis, the voltage stability is considered in reliability evaluation. It is expected that the proposed method will be useful expecially in reliability evaluation of electric power system which has voltage restriction.