Stochastic Modelling to Analyze the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration in Thailand

Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is one of the most promising solutions to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector. However, a large increase of EVs raises concerns about negative impacts on electricity generation, transmission, and distribution systems. This study analyzes the benefits and trade-offs for EV penetration in Thai road transport based on EV penetration scenarios from 2019 to 2036. Two charging strategies are considered to assess the impact of EV charging: free charging and off-peak charging. Uncertainty variables are considered by a stochastic approach based on Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS). The simulation results shown that the adoption of EVs can reduce both energy consumption and GHG emissions. The results also indicate that the increased load due to EV charging demand in all scenarios is still within the buffer level, compared to the installed generation capacity in the Power Development Plan 2018 revision 1 (PDP2018r1), and the off-peak charging strategy is more beneficial than the free-charging strategy. However, the increased load demand caused by all EV charging strategies has a direct impact on the power generating schedule, and also decreases the system reliability level.